Thinking About the Stock Market

I have been watching the run-up in the U.S. stock market very closely this fall and early winter. I was rather puzzled by it as a driver for such a run-up, namely earnings growth, did not seem to be there, or was not being presented. It seemed to me like some over blown speculation that made me skeptical.

Anyway, I admit to be a very conservative Scot when it comes to money. It is too hard to come by to be speculating – just not my cup of tea so to speak.

Well, I recently saw some similar concerns expressed by the brokerage/investment firm of Goldman/Sachs. The piece I read from Goldman said that there were little to no corporate earnings to justify this run-up in the stock market, and that it was mostly due to the Fed giving a pause in interest rate increases, and also some high hopes for an improvement in the trade war with China.

This kind of thing seems to me to be hardly the way to invest money, especially if you would like to see your money again some day. It seems that any market that goes up like this just on pure speculation can also come down just as quickly and just as dramatically.

So, the economy is working, but not quite like the stock market would indicate. It ought to work after being juiced with the big corporate tax cut that was passed. We are growing our deficit and that scares me as I see my children and grandchildren being faced with paying back this money some day just so some big corporations could increase dividends and buy back more of their own shares.

Yes, some folks made some money during this run-up (I was not one of them – haha). I find it so hard to take chances as I do not have a whole life time ahead of me to recover from bad choices, and I hate to lose what is so hard to earn and save.

Just my 2 cents here.

Published by Ed Pirie

I am a Vermonter, been one all my life. That just about tells you all you need to know. I am not much of a follower and like to do my own thinking. I value my family and a quiet existence in a very rural part of Vermont. There is a lot in the world I do not understand. My writing is my attempt to wrap my head around much that is swirling around me. Some time ago gasoline pumps changed to the way they look now. I had stopped to fill my Jeep and I could not get the gas to pump to save my life. I went inside and complained to the attendant. She knew me and said, "Ed, the whole world is changing and if you don't figure out the changes you are going to fall off the earth as it spins around." Well, I am not always successful figuring out the changes, but my writing is my way of working through some of them. I hope you enjoy.

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